This year's rally has been driven by earnings. S&P 500 companies grew earnings per share 18% in the first quarter, and the median company outside the largest technology names still grew 14%. We did not own the semiconductor stocks that led the market, which explains most of our soft US quarter. Our Canadian holdings had a strong second quarter and brought the year-to-date return broadly in line with the index.

Headlines were louder than the economy. Oil above $110 and tariff brinkmanship moved prices without changing what our companies will earn over the next decade, which is the only forecast we are willing to underwrite. GFL Environmental was the clearest case: the market marked the shares down on an acquisition it disliked, then two private equity firms approached the company. Analysts believe a credible offer starts at $70 against $53 before the news.

We added three businesses, sold nothing, and ended the quarter with the portfolios trading at roughly 70 cents on the dollar against our estimate of business value. Positioning is unchanged: concentrated, low turnover, and built around businesses whose recurring economics we can verify rather than model.